· China Automobile Association: China's auto industry enters a critical state of cooling and maintains 5% growth expectation

On May 11th, the China Automobile Industry Association (China Automobile Association) information conference held in Beijing gave the above judgments on the production and sales data of the automobile industry and the development of the industry.

In this regard, Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said that the association is cautious and optimistic about this year's market. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the auto market will be around 5%, and there is no adjustment plan.

The car market's model preferences have changed significantly. In April this year, car sales fell more than 7% year-on-year, and SUV models grew more than 11% year-on-year.

Shi Jianhua believes that the SUV model overlaps with the car in terms of function and usage requirements, and the car encounters a substitution effect, and the sales volume of both parties is changing.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, believes that there is no significant warming trend in the auto market in the first four months of this year. The auto market has a significant effect on the crowding out of the property market. To this end, the auto market growth rate will be lowered from the previous forecast of 6.5% to 5%. .

The car suffered from the extrusion effect of the SUV, which was significantly down year-on-year.

According to the data of the China Automobile Association, in April this year, a total of 1.72 million passenger cars were sold, down 3.68% year-on-year. Judging from the sales of the main types of passenger cars, compared with the previous month, the sales of the four major categories of passenger cars showed a significant decline. Among them, the car fell significantly, with sales of 830,000 vehicles, down more than 7% year-on-year. SUV models sold 680,000 units in the same period, a year-on-year increase of over 11%.

Shi Jianhua responded to the news that the current car development base is large and the growth rate is also unusual.

Shi Jianhua added that the current SUV market is hot, and its overlap with cars in terms of functions and usage requirements, the car has replaced the effect, the two sides have changed.

On the same day, the China Automobile Association released data on the China Automotive Industry Climate Index (ACI) for the first quarter of 2017. The data shows that the index is 39, which is slightly lower than the lower limit of 40 in the green light zone, and is in the light blue light zone (cooling zone). This shows that the operation of the automobile industry is still stable, but it has entered a critical state of cooling.

Shi Jianhua added that the China Automobile Association has been cautious and optimistic about the market since the beginning of the year. It is expected that the car sales growth rate will be around 5% this year. There is no plan to adjust the forecast.

Half of the purchase tax, the hump effect appears

Previously, the industry has mostly attributed the coldness of automobile sales at the beginning of the year to the policy of “halving the purchase tax for small-displacement vehicles”.

On December 15, 2016, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a document stating that from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017, passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less will be deducted at a rate of 7.5%. Vehicle purchase tax. From January 1, 2018, the vehicle purchase tax will be levied at a statutory rate of 10%.

At that time, senior auto analyst Jia Xinguang once told the news that the adjustment has precedent: "Between 2009 and 2011, there have been three such steps, but the policy overdrafted the consumer market in advance. There is a lot of market ups and downs."

According to the data of the China Automobile Association on May 11, the sales of passenger cars of 1.6L and below that continue to enjoy the purchase tax policy are not optimistic. In April this year, 1.137 million vehicles were sold in a single month, down 10.2% from the same period of the previous year. From January to April, sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 5.333 million, a decrease of 0.3% over the same period of the previous year.

Xiao Zhengsan, secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, made it clear that although there is a 2.5% discount this year, he is still cautious and not optimistic. This year's date may not be very good. The association hopes that the production enterprises and suppliers should be cautiously produced according to the market situation, and do not pass all production pressures to the distributors.

“The squeeze effect of the property market on the automobile market”

According to Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, the high-priced property market has a substitution effect on the purchasing power of the automobile market.

Cui Dongshu believes that residents' awareness of investing in housing is high, which has caused the housing market to squeeze the car market. This is particularly evident in the current county-level market.

Cui Dongshu lowered the growth rate of the auto market in 2017 from the previous forecast of 6.5% to 5%, and is ready to adjust in September this year.

There are also views that from the big picture, the Chinese auto market may have entered an adjustment period.

Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, once told the news that according to the history of the mature automobile market, the Chinese auto industry is likely to undergo deep and negative growth adjustments in the next three years.

Lang Xuehong added that it is still uncertain whether it is already in it, but the Chinese auto industry can refer to the experience of disposal in other developed markets and adopt multiple measures.

To this end, the China Automobile Dealers Association has proposed to the government to introduce policies to promote automobile consumption in order to maintain relatively stable automobile consumption.

Lang Xuehong believes that it is a good strategy to restart the car to the countryside. “The policy of declining the purchase tax has been introduced and cannot be repeated. However, the rural market share is gradually expanding, and the car going to the countryside will effectively release consumer demand.”

"China Auto News" reported earlier that on March 9 the Ministry of Commerce invited a number of companies and experts to discuss the proposal to restart the car to the countryside. There are still differences between the opinions of each other. The leaders of the Ministry of Commerce did not express their views. Whether to restart the car to go to the countryside requires the government to consider various factors and consider that it is still not final.

It is worth noting that according to the data of the China Automobile Association, the sales data of new energy vehicles is quite eye-catching.

In April this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 37,000 and 34,000 respectively, an increase of 19% and 7.9% compared with the same period of the previous year. Among them, the growth rate of production and sales of pure electric vehicles was remarkable, with 30,000 and 28,000 vehicles respectively, up 26.1% and 19.4% respectively.

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