After China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, many within the domestic automobile industry feared that foreign competition would severely impact local manufacturers, potentially leading to their decline. However, this concern proved unfounded. In the four years following its accession, the Chinese auto industry not only survived but also evolved into a more structured and mature sector, achieving significant progress and development.
One of the key factors was the gradual reduction of import tariffs on vehicles, which dropped from 80% in 2001 to 25% by July 2006. This move attracted major international automakers such as Toyota, Nissan, and Peugeot PSA to establish a strong presence in China. With the Chinese market growing at an impressive rate of 13% in 2004, global automakers saw great potential, especially in vehicle production. By then, the world’s top automotive companies—referred to as the “6+3†structure—had all set up operations in China.
Joint ventures became increasingly important in this transformation. Statistics show that 80% of the growth in China's auto industry came from these partnerships. Major foreign automakers like General Motors, Ford, Daimler-Chrysler, Volkswagen, Toyota, and BMW announced plans to expand their production in China, with substantial capital investments. For example, Volkswagen increased its capital by 6 billion euros, while General Motors invested 2 billion yuan, and Daimler Chrysler added 10 billion euros.
In addition, the profitability of the auto sector attracted other industries to enter the market. In 2003, companies like Midea, Oaks, and Greenkell entered the automobile manufacturing field, fueling what became known as the "wandering Chinese" builder movement.
According to Li Chunbo, a researcher at CITIC Securities, joint ventures with foreign firms helped local manufacturers enhance their technological innovation and R&D capabilities. Today, Chinese auto companies have production technologies that are close to international standards, laying a solid foundation for sustainable development.
Li also noted that restructuring efforts over the past few years have led to a more rational industrial and product structure in the domestic auto market. The ratio of commercial vehicles to passenger cars has approached 1:1, and the top five enterprise groups now account for 70% of total domestic production.
As foreign investment grew, so did the scale of domestic auto production and sales. At the start of China's WTO membership, only a few joint ventures, such as Volkswagen, General Motors, Citroen, and Toyota, were involved in local production, with output below one million units. By the end of 2005, 63 foreign automakers, including Hyundai, had established joint ventures in China, and domestic car production and sales reached 2.8 million units, with production capacity exceeding 5 million.
However, the rapid expansion led to overcapacity issues, especially after 2004 when macro-control policies were implemented. By the end of 2004, car inventories exceeded 400,000, and experts predicted that overcapacity could surpass 20–25% in the next two to three years. This resulted in intense price wars among automakers.
Li Chunbo explained that while initial demand for cars had been suppressed for years, leading to high profitability, the surge in production capacity caused fierce competition and falling prices. As a result, profits declined from peak levels to around the international average.
Wang Zhihui pointed out that consumers became more rational, focusing more on safety, fuel efficiency, and other intrinsic qualities rather than just size or design.
By 2005, the Chinese auto market had entered a period of adjustment. Tariffs were further reduced, and the import quota system was abolished, bringing the market closer to international standards. While the imported car market saw a shift toward lower profit margins, domestic automakers continued to adapt.
Despite challenges, the Chinese auto market remained dynamic. By 2004, it still maintained a 13% growth rate and was gradually becoming more rational and mature. Over the past four years, the variety of products expanded, prices dropped significantly, and cars became more accessible to ordinary families.
Li Chunbo emphasized that the Chinese auto market is long-term and has great potential for sustainable development. Consumer preferences shifted from government and corporate purchases to private ownership, with private car ownership rising from less than 40% to nearly 60%.
Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue growing during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. Wang Zhihui noted that while domestic brands like Chery and Geely have made progress, they are still relatively young. However, their growth trajectory is promising and worth watching.
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