Commercial vehicle market is expected to pick up next year

Affected by the macro economy, the demand for commercial vehicles in the country has fallen into a sluggish state in the past two years. However, from the third quarter of this year, commercial vehicles have stabilized and stabilized. For the development trend of the commercial vehicle market next year, experts and car executives have their own opinions, but when it comes to the important driving force for the commercial vehicle market to pick up, its views have a high degree of consistency, that is, the introduction of national stimulus policies.

Yang Zaiqi Deputy General Secretary of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association: In the second half of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 25 rail transit and railway trunk projects and approved and approved 13 major highway projects and 7 state-level huge projects such as ports. . At the same time, various local governments throughout the country have launched investment competitions and investment plans have reached trillions of dollars. The local version of "four trillion yuan" has room for development in the heavy truck market. However, the investment field that really affects the rapid market recovery of the heavy-duty truck industry in 2013 depends on the trend of the government's economic development mode and macro-control policies after the "18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China" in order to make further feasibility basic judgments.

A series of generous investment projects by the central and local governments is undoubtedly a very encouraging news for the bleak heavy-duty market. Continuing investment will bring great impetus to the heavy truck market. Therefore, it is expected that the heavy truck market may have certain “responsive” motivations next year, but it is not clear and clear.

According to the analysis of relevant economists: "At present, the total planned investment of local governments has accounted for a quarter of China's total GDP last year, which is more than 2.5 trillion yuan more than the total revenue of last year. It is not difficult to infer: The investment plan has a large amount of water. Therefore, whether the heavy-duty truck market can get out of the sluggish swamp in 2013 is yet to be revealed and supported by a series of stimulus policies introduced by the country next year. In short, in 2013, the overall economic environment and the difficult status of truck enterprises in surviving the market and the severe development of the market are not optimistic.

Liu Bo, the new chairman of the Truck Marketing Service Co., Ltd.: The heavy truck market next year will be better than this year, but it will not be as fire as it was in previous years. In the next year's heavy truck market, the performance of different regional markets will be different, and some regions may have a certain growth, which in turn will drive the overall market to grow slightly.

After the 18th National Congress of the People's Republic of China, the state will increase policy support for certain regions and certain industries to promote the development of these regions and industries and drive the growth of local truck demand. In addition, subway projects that are being launched all over the country may also drive demand for construction vehicles.

In a situation where the overall situation is not optimistic, some market segments will undergo major changes. For example, with the rapid rise of high-speed logistics and the country’s vigorous promotion of drop-and-hook transport, structural adjustments will take place in the logistics market, which will affect changes in the demand of the tractor market. In addition, natural gas heavy trucks will continue to be hot spots next year.

Pang Qinghua Chairman of the giant group: In 2013, the overall production and sales situation was better than in 2012, and consumers’ purchasing power will be greater than this year. This year's manufacturers' press warehouses are related to the annual sales plan. After this year's pains, manufacturers should consider how to reduce the pressure on themselves and distributors. For a large group, commercial vehicle sales will have a significant rebound and growth next year, because after the 18th National Congress, the country introduced a number of policies, causing the economic situation to pick up.

Wang Wenbing Deputy General Manager of Yutong Bus: This year's entire industry was affected by the macro economy. It has a certain impact. After the whole industry, especially after August, the market performance of the entire Volkswagen vehicle is also very poor, but it is relative to trucks and other commercial applications. For cars, large and medium-sized passenger cars are still very good. The whole industry still grew from January to September. Although the growth rate is not much, that is, 5 or 6 points, it still grows, and the main force of this year's growth is the school bus. Because the outbreak of the school bus market has played a crucial role in supporting the growth of the entire medium and large passenger car industry.

We will still have confidence in the large and medium-sized bus industry next year. The lowest period this year should be from September to the Spring Festival. This time may be the most obvious increase compared to previous years. Next year, we believe that the industry will gradually ease up. From the perspective of the opinions discussed by experts, we all unanimously judged that there should be 8 to 10% of industry growth next year.

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