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Since last week, the domestic methanol market has reversed its previous seven-week gains and entered a downtrend channel. Currently, the mainstream price in the East China market is around 3,100 yuan (ton price, the same below), the mainstream price in the South China market is around 3,500 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shanxi, Henan, and Hebei is below 3,000 yuan. Compared with the previous high point, the price of methanol is generally reduced by 300 to 500 yuan. Comprehensive analysis of the current situation in all aspects, the methanol market is still downward pressure.
First, the macroeconomic environment is still under pressure. On the domestic front, the People's Bank of China announced that it will raise the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% from November 29, and that the deposit reserve ratio will reach an all-time high of 18%. The macroeconomic policy of tightening monetary policy will inevitably affect the methanol as a bulk chemical product. Internationally, Ireland's national debt crisis and international crude oil shocks have also lowered pressure on methanol.
Second, downstream demand turned weak. Due to the declining demand for sheet metal in the winter, the inventory of formaldehyde manufacturers is high, and the demand for methanol is slowing down. DME is affected by the weakness of the liquefied petroleum gas market. The price declines and the demand shrinks; the acetic acid industry also has a similar demand and the price declines.
Third, the power restriction policies in some regions have been loosened, and the methanol utilization rate has increased. The expected increase in domestic methanol production will increase in the future. Starting from mid-November, some early-stage parking companies in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, etc., were restarted. Combined with the start-up of some new methanol plants, the tight supply of the methanol market has ended.
Fourth, the methanol prices in coastal ports have weakened. Since the beginning of this week, the outer disk of CFR China East China continued to decline. This Tuesday (November 23) has fallen to 381 to 382 US dollars, while last weekend (November 19) was 394 to 396 US dollars. In addition, with the gradual settlement of the payment problem in Iran, the import volume of methanol is expected to increase.
Fifth, the futures market is lower. On November 23, the price of the main methanol contract in Zhangjiagang Chemical Electronic Co., Ltd. oscillated, and the final price was closed at the daily limit, closing at 2,860 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous trading day. On the 24th, the price of the main methanol contract fell sharply, and the closing price continued to fall, closing at 2,815 yuan, and falling by 45 yuan from the previous trading day. The decline in futures is also detrimental to the spot market.
However, winter is the peak season for the traditional consumption of coal and natural gas, and the cost of methanol is clearly supported. CNPC cuts the gas consumption of industrial natural gas and the production of natural gas methanol plants in Northwest China is affected; the impact of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies remains, and the load of domestic methanol plants is still low; while the port imports There is little pressure on source inventory. Taken together, although the downward pressure on methanol is heavy, it is unlikely that it will plung. In the short term, it will fluctuate in a downward trend.
First, the macroeconomic environment is still under pressure. On the domestic front, the People's Bank of China announced that it will raise the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% from November 29, and that the deposit reserve ratio will reach an all-time high of 18%. The macroeconomic policy of tightening monetary policy will inevitably affect the methanol as a bulk chemical product. Internationally, Ireland's national debt crisis and international crude oil shocks have also lowered pressure on methanol.
Second, downstream demand turned weak. Due to the declining demand for sheet metal in the winter, the inventory of formaldehyde manufacturers is high, and the demand for methanol is slowing down. DME is affected by the weakness of the liquefied petroleum gas market. The price declines and the demand shrinks; the acetic acid industry also has a similar demand and the price declines.
Third, the power restriction policies in some regions have been loosened, and the methanol utilization rate has increased. The expected increase in domestic methanol production will increase in the future. Starting from mid-November, some early-stage parking companies in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, etc., were restarted. Combined with the start-up of some new methanol plants, the tight supply of the methanol market has ended.
Fourth, the methanol prices in coastal ports have weakened. Since the beginning of this week, the outer disk of CFR China East China continued to decline. This Tuesday (November 23) has fallen to 381 to 382 US dollars, while last weekend (November 19) was 394 to 396 US dollars. In addition, with the gradual settlement of the payment problem in Iran, the import volume of methanol is expected to increase.
Fifth, the futures market is lower. On November 23, the price of the main methanol contract in Zhangjiagang Chemical Electronic Co., Ltd. oscillated, and the final price was closed at the daily limit, closing at 2,860 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous trading day. On the 24th, the price of the main methanol contract fell sharply, and the closing price continued to fall, closing at 2,815 yuan, and falling by 45 yuan from the previous trading day. The decline in futures is also detrimental to the spot market.
However, winter is the peak season for the traditional consumption of coal and natural gas, and the cost of methanol is clearly supported. CNPC cuts the gas consumption of industrial natural gas and the production of natural gas methanol plants in Northwest China is affected; the impact of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies remains, and the load of domestic methanol plants is still low; while the port imports There is little pressure on source inventory. Taken together, although the downward pressure on methanol is heavy, it is unlikely that it will plung. In the short term, it will fluctuate in a downward trend.
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