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I. Record Imports of Machinery Industry Imports and Exports in 2010 According to customs statistics, in 2010, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was US$513.83 billion, which was an increase of 36.39% over the same period of the previous year (hereinafter referred to as the same period of the previous year). Among them, the import of 255.347 billion US dollars, an increase of 41.14%; export 258.483 billion US dollars, an increase of 32%. The import and export trade surplus was 3.136 billion U.S. dollars (according to the statistical scope of China Machinery Industry Federation, the same below).
1. Rapid growth in exports, a record high In 2010, the export value has exceeded the highest level in 2008 (exports 24.2498 billion U.S. dollars).
Compared with the same period of last year, all industries in the machinery industry, except for the heavy mining machinery industry's export decline, other industries have grown by more than 20% year-on-year, of which the two largest industries are mechanical base parts and automobiles, with the fastest growth of 43.73%. 40.3%.
The products with a year-on-year increase of over 50% from the previous year mainly include: tractors, diesel engines, loaders, forklifts, electronic measuring instruments, automotive instrumentation, plastic machinery, numerical control machine tools, gas turbines, low-voltage switchboard cabinets, molds, pneumatic components, Bearings, cars, off-road vehicles, passenger cars, buses, etc. The export of these products is very good.
Of the 258.483 billion U.S. dollars exported in 2010, state-owned enterprises accounted for 43.313 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 16.76%; foreign-funded enterprises accounted for 14.1926 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 54.91%; and private enterprises accounted for 73.243 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 28.33%.
The regional distribution of exports began to change, the proportion of exports to developed economies began to decline, and the proportion of emerging economies and developing countries increased. Among the total exports, the proportion of developed economies in the EU, the United States, and Japan fell from 43.53% in 2008 to 41.55% in 2010. It shows that due to the great impact of the financial crisis on developed economies, demand has been relatively reduced.
2. Imports grew at a rapid rate, and the import amount greatly exceeded the highest level in calendar years. The import value in 2010 was higher than the highest level in 2008 (imported $194.83 billion). The year-on-year increase in imports reached 74.43 billion U.S. dollars, which is also the highest level in history, and the trend is very strong.
Compared with the same period of last year, all industries in the machinery industry saw an all-round increase in imports, with the largest increase in imports being in the automotive industry, which was 74.95%, followed by the machine tool industry by 66.73% and once again in the construction machinery industry by 65.93%.
The products that have more than doubled the year-on-year increase in imports are: tractors, excavators, pavers, automotive instruments, machining centers, cars, minibuses, and buses. The reasons for the rapid growth, in addition to the strong consumer demand for cars, passenger cars, off-road vehicles, motorcycles, and cameras, are mainly due to strong investment in fixed assets.
After analysis, the net increase of 74.43 billion U.S. dollars in the year was the largest increase in the auto industry's net increase of 20.92 billion U.S. dollars, followed by the net increase of 10.26 billion U.S. dollars for the electrical and electronics industry, again the net increase of 8.73 billion U.S. dollars for the instrumentation industry, and the fourth was the machine tool. The net increase in the tool industry was US$6.37 billion. Among them, the import growth of automobiles, machine tools, excavators, power electronic components, and automatic adjustment and control instruments is very strong.
II. New Situations and New Issues Faced by Imports and Exports of Machinery Industry in 2011 1. Exports In 2011, the world economy was in a recovery phase after the financial crisis, and the economic growth rate will gradually recover. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the GDP of developed economies will increase by about 2.4% in 2011, and the GDP of developing countries will increase by about 6.6%. It is expected that the demand in the international market will increase, especially the continuous expansion of economic and technical cooperation between China and emerging economies and developing countries, establishing free trade areas with 6 ASEAN countries, and signing free trade zones with countries such as Chile, Peru and Singapore. Factors such as the agreement, the international economic environment in 2011 is conducive to the stable and rapid development of China's machinery industry's foreign trade.
New situation and new problems:
First of all, the appreciation of the renminbi is under pressure. On June 19, 2010, the People's Bank of China announced that it will continue to implement exchange rate reforms to make the exchange rate more flexible. The increase was 3.2% in half a year. According to experts' forecast, it is possible to appreciate 5%-6% in 2011, that is, from the beginning of the year, the US dollar was 6.6 yuan, an appreciation of 0.3 yuan to 0.4 yuan, and 1 dollar to 6.3 yuan to 6.2 yuan, which will definitely increase export costs.
Secondly, some raw materials such as steel, copper and aluminum may rise in price of non-ferrous metals; rising labor costs and rising bank loan interest rates will increase export costs, reduce export competitiveness, and make exporters face difficulties.
Again, trade protectionism has risen in various countries and trade frictions have increased. Some developed countries, led by the United States, have implemented trade investigations and trade sanctions against China in many fields. For example, the United States recently conducted a trade investigation on the wind power generation equipment exported by China. On February 7, the United States decided to impose high anti-dumping and countervailing duties on some of the oil drill pipes exported from China in order to prevent the export of Chinese products to the United States.
Based on the above analysis, although there are several unfavorable factors and difficulties in 2011, there are many favorable factors. The world economy is recovering. The structure of China’s export products is constantly being optimized, and some achievements have been made in the development of potential markets for enterprises. A solid pace. Therefore, the export of machinery industry will continue to grow steadily and rapidly in 2011, and the proportion of exports to emerging economies and developing countries will continue to increase.
2. Imports First, the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year pointed out that it is necessary to “optimize the import structure, expand the scale of imports, and play an important role in the macroeconomic balance and economic restructuring of importsâ€. At the national business conference held at the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Commerce proposed to expand imports and strive to achieve a basic trade balance, revising and expanding the catalogue of encouraged imports, and implementing preferential import policies. The Ministry of Commerce will hold a national import conference in the first half of this year to introduce policies, optimize the environment, and promote the development of China's import trade.
Secondly, the "Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" stipulates that from January 1, 2011, 176 kinds of machinery products imported from Taiwan by the mainland should be reduced in tariffs. Most of the products (such as CNC horizontal lathes, etc.) have reduced their import tariffs from 8%-15% in 2011 to 5%, and in 2012, import tariffs have dropped to zero. The major tax reductions are machine tools, plastic machinery, low-power motors, molds, and hydraulic components.
Again, the appreciation of the renminbi will reduce import costs and benefit imports.
III. Several countermeasures and suggestions 1. Adapting to changes in international market demand, adjusting and optimizing the structure of export products After the international financial crisis, countries have adopted a series of corresponding measures, and the international market demand has undergone some changes. The relevant export companies must adapt to this change. , According to user needs, timely adjustment of product structure, good service. At the same time, as domestic companies adjust their product mix, they change the progress of development methods, optimize the structure of export products in a timely manner, and gradually reduce the export of “two high and one capital†products.
2. Open up potential markets and pay attention to the impact of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Actively expand markets in the Middle East, Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, India, Brazil, and Russia to promote diversification of the export market and make efforts to make up for lost markets in the European Union and the United States. Share.
The debt crisis started by Greece has extended to Ireland, Spain and other countries, leading to the continued spread of the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis, prompting a significant depreciation of the euro, and also allowing the renminbi to appreciate relative to the euro, which has a major impact on China’s exports. The relevant companies need to pay close attention to the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the euro and the changes in the market, actively take corresponding measures and timely adjust export strategies.
3. Continue to “go global†and increase internationalization efforts. Some of China's powerful enterprises have achieved practical results in carrying out international operations in recent years, and some are gradually establishing global sales and service outlets, which have created a great deal of further expansion. Good condition. It is necessary to encourage more qualified companies to “go global†to invest and set up factories, to jointly venture and cooperate with local enterprises, or to selectively merge and acquire foreign companies with advanced manufacturing technologies, and to create conditions for the gradual transfer of advanced technologies to domestic enterprises. In the product, this promotes the adjustment and upgrading of the product structure of the company.
4. In the face of expanding imports, it is necessary to seize opportunities and improve the capacity for independent innovation. On the one hand, relevant enterprises must fully use the policies of the State to encourage imports, introduce the necessary advanced technologies and equipment, and use key components and parts for product support. In the process of expanding imports, the use of imported equipment as a bargaining chip, through negotiation with foreign companies, tendering, etc., brings in technology at the same time; or importing equipment to attract foreign companies to cooperate with me, and our company will contract a number of components and transfer part of the technology. With the increase in the number of similar imported equipment, we will gradually expand the scope of our company's production until we have mastered all technologies;
On the other hand, efforts should be made to improve independent innovation capabilities. Independent innovation does not mean that everything should be developed from scratch. With the globalization of economy and the rapid development of science and technology, it is impossible for any country to independently develop technology in all fields and close its doors to engage in independent innovation. In this sense, it is very important to pay attention to the introduction, absorption and re-innovation of imported technologies. Therefore, while expanding imports, we must work hard to absorb new innovations, continue to research and develop new products with independent intellectual property rights, and strive to improve our competitiveness.
5. Actively create conditions to push forward RMB settlement In June 2010, the People's Bank of China and other departments issued the “Notice on Expanding the Issues Related to the Pilot Project of Expanding RMB Settlement for Cross-border Tradeâ€, and decided to expand the geographic scope and business scope of the RMB settlement pilot program for cross-border trade. .
This measure is an important option for avoiding exchange rate risk, which can reduce the dependence on the US dollar and reduce the losses caused by the appreciation of the RMB to export companies. Judging from recent multi-party information, many foreign investors are also willing to use RMB settlement and have achieved substantial results. According to statistics, in the first 10 months of 2010, China's renminbi settlement with more than 70 countries and regions has exceeded RMB 250 billion in value of imports and exports, and great progress has been made. Exporting companies should work closely with customers, select strong banks, and actively promote RMB settlement.
1. Rapid growth in exports, a record high In 2010, the export value has exceeded the highest level in 2008 (exports 24.2498 billion U.S. dollars).
Compared with the same period of last year, all industries in the machinery industry, except for the heavy mining machinery industry's export decline, other industries have grown by more than 20% year-on-year, of which the two largest industries are mechanical base parts and automobiles, with the fastest growth of 43.73%. 40.3%.
The products with a year-on-year increase of over 50% from the previous year mainly include: tractors, diesel engines, loaders, forklifts, electronic measuring instruments, automotive instrumentation, plastic machinery, numerical control machine tools, gas turbines, low-voltage switchboard cabinets, molds, pneumatic components, Bearings, cars, off-road vehicles, passenger cars, buses, etc. The export of these products is very good.
Of the 258.483 billion U.S. dollars exported in 2010, state-owned enterprises accounted for 43.313 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 16.76%; foreign-funded enterprises accounted for 14.1926 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 54.91%; and private enterprises accounted for 73.243 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 28.33%.
The regional distribution of exports began to change, the proportion of exports to developed economies began to decline, and the proportion of emerging economies and developing countries increased. Among the total exports, the proportion of developed economies in the EU, the United States, and Japan fell from 43.53% in 2008 to 41.55% in 2010. It shows that due to the great impact of the financial crisis on developed economies, demand has been relatively reduced.
2. Imports grew at a rapid rate, and the import amount greatly exceeded the highest level in calendar years. The import value in 2010 was higher than the highest level in 2008 (imported $194.83 billion). The year-on-year increase in imports reached 74.43 billion U.S. dollars, which is also the highest level in history, and the trend is very strong.
Compared with the same period of last year, all industries in the machinery industry saw an all-round increase in imports, with the largest increase in imports being in the automotive industry, which was 74.95%, followed by the machine tool industry by 66.73% and once again in the construction machinery industry by 65.93%.
The products that have more than doubled the year-on-year increase in imports are: tractors, excavators, pavers, automotive instruments, machining centers, cars, minibuses, and buses. The reasons for the rapid growth, in addition to the strong consumer demand for cars, passenger cars, off-road vehicles, motorcycles, and cameras, are mainly due to strong investment in fixed assets.
After analysis, the net increase of 74.43 billion U.S. dollars in the year was the largest increase in the auto industry's net increase of 20.92 billion U.S. dollars, followed by the net increase of 10.26 billion U.S. dollars for the electrical and electronics industry, again the net increase of 8.73 billion U.S. dollars for the instrumentation industry, and the fourth was the machine tool. The net increase in the tool industry was US$6.37 billion. Among them, the import growth of automobiles, machine tools, excavators, power electronic components, and automatic adjustment and control instruments is very strong.
II. New Situations and New Issues Faced by Imports and Exports of Machinery Industry in 2011 1. Exports In 2011, the world economy was in a recovery phase after the financial crisis, and the economic growth rate will gradually recover. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the GDP of developed economies will increase by about 2.4% in 2011, and the GDP of developing countries will increase by about 6.6%. It is expected that the demand in the international market will increase, especially the continuous expansion of economic and technical cooperation between China and emerging economies and developing countries, establishing free trade areas with 6 ASEAN countries, and signing free trade zones with countries such as Chile, Peru and Singapore. Factors such as the agreement, the international economic environment in 2011 is conducive to the stable and rapid development of China's machinery industry's foreign trade.
New situation and new problems:
First of all, the appreciation of the renminbi is under pressure. On June 19, 2010, the People's Bank of China announced that it will continue to implement exchange rate reforms to make the exchange rate more flexible. The increase was 3.2% in half a year. According to experts' forecast, it is possible to appreciate 5%-6% in 2011, that is, from the beginning of the year, the US dollar was 6.6 yuan, an appreciation of 0.3 yuan to 0.4 yuan, and 1 dollar to 6.3 yuan to 6.2 yuan, which will definitely increase export costs.
Secondly, some raw materials such as steel, copper and aluminum may rise in price of non-ferrous metals; rising labor costs and rising bank loan interest rates will increase export costs, reduce export competitiveness, and make exporters face difficulties.
Again, trade protectionism has risen in various countries and trade frictions have increased. Some developed countries, led by the United States, have implemented trade investigations and trade sanctions against China in many fields. For example, the United States recently conducted a trade investigation on the wind power generation equipment exported by China. On February 7, the United States decided to impose high anti-dumping and countervailing duties on some of the oil drill pipes exported from China in order to prevent the export of Chinese products to the United States.
Based on the above analysis, although there are several unfavorable factors and difficulties in 2011, there are many favorable factors. The world economy is recovering. The structure of China’s export products is constantly being optimized, and some achievements have been made in the development of potential markets for enterprises. A solid pace. Therefore, the export of machinery industry will continue to grow steadily and rapidly in 2011, and the proportion of exports to emerging economies and developing countries will continue to increase.
2. Imports First, the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year pointed out that it is necessary to “optimize the import structure, expand the scale of imports, and play an important role in the macroeconomic balance and economic restructuring of importsâ€. At the national business conference held at the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Commerce proposed to expand imports and strive to achieve a basic trade balance, revising and expanding the catalogue of encouraged imports, and implementing preferential import policies. The Ministry of Commerce will hold a national import conference in the first half of this year to introduce policies, optimize the environment, and promote the development of China's import trade.
Secondly, the "Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" stipulates that from January 1, 2011, 176 kinds of machinery products imported from Taiwan by the mainland should be reduced in tariffs. Most of the products (such as CNC horizontal lathes, etc.) have reduced their import tariffs from 8%-15% in 2011 to 5%, and in 2012, import tariffs have dropped to zero. The major tax reductions are machine tools, plastic machinery, low-power motors, molds, and hydraulic components.
Again, the appreciation of the renminbi will reduce import costs and benefit imports.
III. Several countermeasures and suggestions 1. Adapting to changes in international market demand, adjusting and optimizing the structure of export products After the international financial crisis, countries have adopted a series of corresponding measures, and the international market demand has undergone some changes. The relevant export companies must adapt to this change. , According to user needs, timely adjustment of product structure, good service. At the same time, as domestic companies adjust their product mix, they change the progress of development methods, optimize the structure of export products in a timely manner, and gradually reduce the export of “two high and one capital†products.
2. Open up potential markets and pay attention to the impact of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Actively expand markets in the Middle East, Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, India, Brazil, and Russia to promote diversification of the export market and make efforts to make up for lost markets in the European Union and the United States. Share.
The debt crisis started by Greece has extended to Ireland, Spain and other countries, leading to the continued spread of the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis, prompting a significant depreciation of the euro, and also allowing the renminbi to appreciate relative to the euro, which has a major impact on China’s exports. The relevant companies need to pay close attention to the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the euro and the changes in the market, actively take corresponding measures and timely adjust export strategies.
3. Continue to “go global†and increase internationalization efforts. Some of China's powerful enterprises have achieved practical results in carrying out international operations in recent years, and some are gradually establishing global sales and service outlets, which have created a great deal of further expansion. Good condition. It is necessary to encourage more qualified companies to “go global†to invest and set up factories, to jointly venture and cooperate with local enterprises, or to selectively merge and acquire foreign companies with advanced manufacturing technologies, and to create conditions for the gradual transfer of advanced technologies to domestic enterprises. In the product, this promotes the adjustment and upgrading of the product structure of the company.
4. In the face of expanding imports, it is necessary to seize opportunities and improve the capacity for independent innovation. On the one hand, relevant enterprises must fully use the policies of the State to encourage imports, introduce the necessary advanced technologies and equipment, and use key components and parts for product support. In the process of expanding imports, the use of imported equipment as a bargaining chip, through negotiation with foreign companies, tendering, etc., brings in technology at the same time; or importing equipment to attract foreign companies to cooperate with me, and our company will contract a number of components and transfer part of the technology. With the increase in the number of similar imported equipment, we will gradually expand the scope of our company's production until we have mastered all technologies;
On the other hand, efforts should be made to improve independent innovation capabilities. Independent innovation does not mean that everything should be developed from scratch. With the globalization of economy and the rapid development of science and technology, it is impossible for any country to independently develop technology in all fields and close its doors to engage in independent innovation. In this sense, it is very important to pay attention to the introduction, absorption and re-innovation of imported technologies. Therefore, while expanding imports, we must work hard to absorb new innovations, continue to research and develop new products with independent intellectual property rights, and strive to improve our competitiveness.
5. Actively create conditions to push forward RMB settlement In June 2010, the People's Bank of China and other departments issued the “Notice on Expanding the Issues Related to the Pilot Project of Expanding RMB Settlement for Cross-border Tradeâ€, and decided to expand the geographic scope and business scope of the RMB settlement pilot program for cross-border trade. .
This measure is an important option for avoiding exchange rate risk, which can reduce the dependence on the US dollar and reduce the losses caused by the appreciation of the RMB to export companies. Judging from recent multi-party information, many foreign investors are also willing to use RMB settlement and have achieved substantial results. According to statistics, in the first 10 months of 2010, China's renminbi settlement with more than 70 countries and regions has exceeded RMB 250 billion in value of imports and exports, and great progress has been made. Exporting companies should work closely with customers, select strong banks, and actively promote RMB settlement.
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