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Recently, the Ministry of Finance decided to implement the import value-added tax (VAT) reimbursement for some of CNPC's and Sinopec's refined oil products. According to the latest data, the CPI was operating at a high level of 8.0% in the first quarter, and the difficulty in adjusting the oil price was once again demonstrated. The industry believes that price controls can only help stabilize inflation expectations in the short term. In the medium to long term, it may lead to commodity shortages and further worsen inflation. Financial subsidies are also more expedient and help to control inflation expectations is limited. Fundamentally speaking, it is necessary to explore the mechanism for the marketization of oil prices in a timely manner and fundamentally solve the various problems existing in the domestic oil market.
Deloitte's tax partner Zhu Xi believes that the Ministry of Finance's first implementation of the VAT on refined oil imports is a temporary measure. Its main purpose is to subsidize PetroChina and Sinopec. He said that all along, China has imposed government regulations on oil prices, and in the context of the sharp rise in international oil prices, the domestic market has formed an inverted oil price, resulting in a substantial loss in the refining business of PetroChina and Sinopec.
As for the end of the subsidy period at the end of June, the regulatory authorities will take new measures to balance the relationship between oil prices, oil companies, CPI and other elements. Zhu Xi believes that this depends on many considerations. For example, whether the entire oil price system will maintain the status quo, the performance of international oil prices, and the overall profitability of large state-owned enterprises such as PetroChina and Sinopec. Regulatory authorities may consider the overall situation based on these circumstances. He said that whether the oil companies will continue to adopt subsidy measures depends on the country’s income status; in addition, other support methods may also be adopted, such as bank credit. In general, however, under the background of inverted oil prices, it is bound to take care of the profitability of PetroChina and Sinopec, because there is still a public company’s shareholder return.
Some people interviewed told the "Securities Daily" reporter that at present, factors such as the continued high international oil price, the implementation of price controls on domestic oil products, subsidies to low-income people or producers, and the increase in domestic inflationary pressures have tangled together. The oil price adjustment can only stay on the “blueprintâ€. The commercial interests of the oil companies have been damaged. Consumers do not feel much benefit, and the pressure on the CPI has not been reduced. “This situation is difficult to continue unrestrictedly.†According to industry sources, from the mid-to-long term perspective, it is necessary to fully understand the relationship between the aforementioned factors, explore the marketization mechanism of oil prices in a timely manner, and fundamentally solve the problems existing in the domestic oil market. Various problems.
For the contradictions of price control and inflation, Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China made a brief statement. He said that price regulation can help stabilize inflation expectations in the very short term, but it is not sustainable. Emphasizing that the introduction of price control actually allows the company owners (or investors) affected by this policy to pay for inflation in the form of compressed margins, which is fundamentally inconsistent with the commercial interests of investors: why investors want to What is the public interest (ie low inflation) at the expense of its private business interests? Investors will either find ways to circumvent these controls or simply reduce their business scale to minimize losses, which will lead to commodity shortages and further worsen the inflation problem.
Regarding the contradiction between providing subsidies and inflation expectations to the relevant market players, Wang Qing said that the government’s subsidy to low-income groups can help these people alleviate the negative impact of inflation on their lives, but it cannot provide the control of inflation expectations. Any help. Similarly, taking into account the production cycle, the government’s approach to providing subsidies to manufacturers to stimulate supply of goods can only act for a moment, but it does not provide any solution to the problem of deterring strong inflation expectations, which leads to the demand continuing to outstrip supply.
As for the final development direction of oil prices, Zhu Xi believes that the oil price formation mechanism may not be able to make major adjustments in the short term, but from the trend point of view, the final upward adjustment of oil prices will be unavoidable. At present, the oil price has reached the highest level in history, and the situation in oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela still needs further observation. All these factors will have an impact on the future trend of oil prices. He believes that domestic crude oil and refined oil products should adopt a gradual approach to market-oriented pricing mechanism reforms. "If the gap between the regulated price and the market price is too large, it will lead to many contradictions."
Deloitte's tax partner Zhu Xi believes that the Ministry of Finance's first implementation of the VAT on refined oil imports is a temporary measure. Its main purpose is to subsidize PetroChina and Sinopec. He said that all along, China has imposed government regulations on oil prices, and in the context of the sharp rise in international oil prices, the domestic market has formed an inverted oil price, resulting in a substantial loss in the refining business of PetroChina and Sinopec.
As for the end of the subsidy period at the end of June, the regulatory authorities will take new measures to balance the relationship between oil prices, oil companies, CPI and other elements. Zhu Xi believes that this depends on many considerations. For example, whether the entire oil price system will maintain the status quo, the performance of international oil prices, and the overall profitability of large state-owned enterprises such as PetroChina and Sinopec. Regulatory authorities may consider the overall situation based on these circumstances. He said that whether the oil companies will continue to adopt subsidy measures depends on the country’s income status; in addition, other support methods may also be adopted, such as bank credit. In general, however, under the background of inverted oil prices, it is bound to take care of the profitability of PetroChina and Sinopec, because there is still a public company’s shareholder return.
Some people interviewed told the "Securities Daily" reporter that at present, factors such as the continued high international oil price, the implementation of price controls on domestic oil products, subsidies to low-income people or producers, and the increase in domestic inflationary pressures have tangled together. The oil price adjustment can only stay on the “blueprintâ€. The commercial interests of the oil companies have been damaged. Consumers do not feel much benefit, and the pressure on the CPI has not been reduced. “This situation is difficult to continue unrestrictedly.†According to industry sources, from the mid-to-long term perspective, it is necessary to fully understand the relationship between the aforementioned factors, explore the marketization mechanism of oil prices in a timely manner, and fundamentally solve the problems existing in the domestic oil market. Various problems.
For the contradictions of price control and inflation, Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China made a brief statement. He said that price regulation can help stabilize inflation expectations in the very short term, but it is not sustainable. Emphasizing that the introduction of price control actually allows the company owners (or investors) affected by this policy to pay for inflation in the form of compressed margins, which is fundamentally inconsistent with the commercial interests of investors: why investors want to What is the public interest (ie low inflation) at the expense of its private business interests? Investors will either find ways to circumvent these controls or simply reduce their business scale to minimize losses, which will lead to commodity shortages and further worsen the inflation problem.
Regarding the contradiction between providing subsidies and inflation expectations to the relevant market players, Wang Qing said that the government’s subsidy to low-income groups can help these people alleviate the negative impact of inflation on their lives, but it cannot provide the control of inflation expectations. Any help. Similarly, taking into account the production cycle, the government’s approach to providing subsidies to manufacturers to stimulate supply of goods can only act for a moment, but it does not provide any solution to the problem of deterring strong inflation expectations, which leads to the demand continuing to outstrip supply.
As for the final development direction of oil prices, Zhu Xi believes that the oil price formation mechanism may not be able to make major adjustments in the short term, but from the trend point of view, the final upward adjustment of oil prices will be unavoidable. At present, the oil price has reached the highest level in history, and the situation in oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela still needs further observation. All these factors will have an impact on the future trend of oil prices. He believes that domestic crude oil and refined oil products should adopt a gradual approach to market-oriented pricing mechanism reforms. "If the gap between the regulated price and the market price is too large, it will lead to many contradictions."
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