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Having been "conceptual" for many years, "New Energy Vehicles" has recently officially entered the official vocabulary.
At the end of June, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promulgated the "Regulations on the Entry of New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers and Products" (hereinafter referred to as the "Rules"). The rules define for the first time what a new energy vehicle is: New energy vehicles include hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles (BEV) , Solar cars, fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), hydrogen engine cars, other new energy (such as high-efficiency energy storage, dimethyl ether) cars and other categories of products.
This behavior directly marks the beginning of China's implementation of the management and access system for new energy vehicle manufacturing companies and products, just like ordinary cars.
For a long time, new energy vehicles have many uncertainties due to lack of the above standards. The entire industry has remained at the stage of trial production and trial operation, and the picture of large-scale industrialization is finally presented.
Forerunners
At present, domestic auto makers have already reached the stage of saying “new energy vehiclesâ€. Under the new industry picture, it is worth mentioning that it is worth mentioning. It is also a lively event. China is presenting a rush about new energy vehicles. .
However, there are also cold-sighted market outlook bearish on the current development prospects of new energy vehicles. During this year's Shanghai Auto Show, Zhao Fuquan, vice president of R&D for Geely Automotive [1.94-2.51%], told CBN reporters that within ten years, if any company completely shifts its production focus to new energy vehicles, it will surely die.
Starting from the late 1990s, new energy automobile technology began to surface gradually. The most successful case was the launch of the Toyota Prius. The 1997 launch of the sedan blew the buzz of large-scale commercialization of new energy vehicles. As of May this year, the Prius has sold more than 1.3 million vehicles worldwide, and the entire Toyota Group has sold 1.8 million hybrid vehicles (including the Lexus brand).
At first glance, it looks like a great achievement, but it is hard to hide behind the embarrassment. First of all, from the aggregate point of view, the cumulative sales figures for the 12 years are equal to Toyota's total sales for one year. The Prius has already won the top spot in the segment of light vehicles in Japan, but it is still not compared with traditional power. An order of magnitude.
In regions other than Japan, such as China, after the introduction of the Prius in early 2006, the number of sales in the three years was 2,152, 414, and 899, respectively, of which the 2008 results were obtained on the basis of the bicycle allowance of RMB 24,000. Prius can be described in the domestic "lose money to drink" to describe.
However, even if the Prius had a poor performance in the country, it was still quite "successful" compared to Buick LaCrosse, Honda Civic, Changan Jiexun, and Chery A5, which also introduced the hybrid model.
In addition to the sales problem, the Prius has encountered a cost predicament. Even in the best-selling Japan, the price of the Prius 2.05 million yen is a loss of 250,000 yen (19,000 yuan) per unit sold. Such low sales, apart from being smashed by competitors including the Honda Civic, it is probably Toyota’s biggest concern that it will lose price attractiveness compared to traditional cars.
In 2009, with the increase in sales volume, the Prius has seen a shortage of supply in both Japan and the United States. This year's launch of the third-generation Prius is Toyota's last launch of models equipped with nickel-metal hydride batteries, with the increasingly widespread use of lithium batteries, the future of hybrid and pure electric will be the world of lithium batteries.
Toyota trying to transform is faced with the choice: in the end is to expand the nickel-metal hydride battery production line, to enlarge the Prius market share; or to invest heavily in lithium battery R & D and production, to know that in the field of lithium, Toyota has lagged behind Nissan, GM and other competitors.
New Energy Roadmap
In fact, it is due to Toyota’s strong cash flow and unremitting efforts to invest in hybrid technology that will advance the era of new energy vehicles. Its experience in developing hybrid power will become a valuable asset for the entire new energy industry.
At the just-concluded 2009 Import Auto Expo, Yue Xiong, general manager of the Toyota Motor Corporation China Office, said: “(China) has recently made publicity by some manufacturers, and the era of electric cars is approaching, but even the latest lithium-ion batteries, It also failed to solve the fundamental problem of electric vehicles."
Takebetsu said that it is more realistic for electric vehicles to use only a small amount of batteries and use them as a small, close-range travel tool.
In early 2009, people were surprised to find Zotye 2008ev, which hangs an ordinary license plate on the banks of West Lake in Hangzhou. This light SUV with ordinary license plate has a different heart from traditional cars, namely a lithium battery with a maximum power of 27 kilowatts. With a mileage of more than 200 kilometers, it is one of the first domestic electric vehicles to receive the production list of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
In 2009, it could be called the first year of electric cars in China. Major car companies almost unanimously introduced mass-produced electric vehicles to the market this year. In addition to Zotye, BYD launched F3DM and Chery logged off the S18.
However, from the current point of view, the state has determined that the development level of pure electric new energy vehicles is quite conservative. According to the aforementioned rules issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, new energy automotive products are divided into three stages: the start-up phase, the development phase, and the maturity phase. In the mature period, it is possible to immediately carry out large-scale commercialization of hybrid passenger cars, pure electric passenger cars, and pure electric commercial vehicles that are produced only from lead-acid batteries.
Passenger cars that use lithium iron phosphate battery technology in China are only in the period of development according to national regulations. The state has a clear definition of the product in the development period: it means that the path of realization of the technical principle is basically clear, and the state and industry standards have not yet been perfected, and products with initial industrialization conditions are in place.
From the development stage, the future of new energy vehicles will be developed along the path of hybrid, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, in order to achieve complete electrification of the powertrain. According to Roland Berger, an international management consulting firm, the above process will take 20 years, from 2010 to 2030.
Concurrently with the above process is another direction of new energy technologies, namely the transformation of traditional internal combustion engines to miniaturization, light weight, and high efficiency, while burning a variety of new fuels, including ethanol, dimethyl ether, biodiesel, Hydrogen and so on.
Judging from the layout of the new energy auto industry, Japanese manufacturers have adopted the electrified route of the powertrain, while German firms are more inclined to improve the internal combustion engine.
However, the trend of new energy technology development is destined to be the power instead of the traditional driving method, which will make the car driving as a part of human daily energy use, all unified to the power.
Technical bottlenecks
Due to excessive focus on hybrid technology, Toyota has lagged behind General Motors, Nissan and other manufacturers in the new energy roadmap. The former can be inserted in the Volt car production car will be launched in 2010, the latter pure electric vehicle Leaf will also be listed at the end of 2010, and Toyota's introduction of such models will be postponed until 2012, the first step from the lithium battery research From.
Compared with traditional fuels, energy density is the most fundamental issue. Each kg of gasoline can store 12 kWh of energy, while a 1 kg lithium-ion battery can store only 0.2 kWh of energy. The energy storage is equivalent to the lithium ion battery of an ordinary car tank (40 kg) and will weigh 2 tons to 3 tons. Lithium battery is still the case, no matter what the nickel-metal hydride battery and lead-acid battery.
Even considering that the motor has higher efficiency, it needs about 700 kilograms of lithium-ion batteries to make the car have the same mileage as ordinary cars. As a result, electric vehicles currently available on the market generally have only a quarter of their mileage.
Judging from the "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" plan launched last year by the state, electric drives will first be applied to public transportation systems. Buses will have better tolerance for battery weight than ordinary cars.
For China, the gap between the electric vehicle industry and the world's leading level is not as small as the outside world had imagined. Compared with the traditional internal combustion engine-driven vehicles, electric vehicles have a total power component of three parts: electronic controls, motors, and batteries.
In terms of batteries, at present, the domestic battery industry has formed an entire industrial chain. Lithium-ion battery technology, represented by lithium iron phosphate batteries, is the smallest gap between advanced technology and the Western advanced technology.
Even so, there is still a gap in domestic technology compared with advanced lithium batteries. In comparison with GM Volt and Zotye 2008ev, Volt has absolute advantages in terms of battery life (10 years and 5 years respectively) and maximum vehicle speed (160 km/h and 110 km/h respectively).
Volt's lithium battery supplier is A123, one of the world's three largest suppliers of lithium iron phosphate batteries for vehicles. The other two are BYD in China and Valence in the United States.
In addition to the battery, China's motor and electronic control technology is very different from foreign countries. The motor part is the key component that the battery drives the vehicle. At present, the asynchronous motors used in pure electric vehicles and plug-in vehicles are still in the starting stage of research and development in China; permanent magnet synchronous motors currently have a gap in performance.
In terms of electronic control, China started later. The battery management system is still in the early stage of research; however, the current large-scale commercialization of DC converters is not suitable for electric vehicles. Including Wanxiang Group, Anida Drive and other domestic companies are conducting exploratory research in electronic control.
Policy Package
In March of this year, the "Automobile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" proposes that 500,000 new energy vehicles will be produced in the next three years, accounting for 5% of the sales volume of passenger cars. By May, the State Council decided to use loan interest subsidy to arrange 200 The 100 million yuan fund supports the technical reform of new energy vehicles. In June, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the rules and plans for the purchase of new energy vehicles, including cities including Guangzhou, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Shenzhen.
Since 2009, the country is speeding up the formulation of new energy automobile policies, but in the specific implementation areas, there are still many measures waiting to be broken.
For example, the biggest obstacle to the large-scale use of electric vehicles, the cost, is difficult to overcome. Taking the Prius as an example, the average price of an ordinary car at the same level is 150,000 yuan, while the Prius has a total of 100,000 yuan more; even if it is a domestically-made light-mixed vehicle, consumers must pay for more than 50,000 yuan for the new technology.
Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced a detailed new energy vehicle subsidy rule at the beginning of this year, it mainly focused on the commercial vehicle sector. In the passenger vehicle segment, the state subsidies target group purchasing users. Taxi companies and enterprises and institutions will receive subsidies. However, although individual car purchase subsidies have already been piloted in some cities, real gainers have not yet emerged.
As the largest consumer of new energy vehicles, if personal consumption subsidies are not opened, it is difficult to imagine qualitative changes in the number of sales.
In addition to subsidizing prices, the construction of related supporting facilities is also the main reason that plagued new energy vehicles. The lack of charging facilities makes it impossible for users of electric vehicles to get charged anytime and anywhere.
In China, special charging facilities have only been established in universities, research institutes, automobile manufacturers and other relevant places. These facilities are only one ten-thousandth of the size of the country's 100,000 gas stations.
Under the above supporting environment, it is almost impossible to imagine the scene of large-scale electric vehicles. In May of this year, the daily production rate first signed a contract with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and demonstration facilities for charging facilities were built in Wuhan, which opened the curtain for the large-scale construction of charging facilities.
However, the establishment of future charging systems will be system engineering. It will include not only independent charging stations but also the construction and charging systems of charging points in various residential areas and large parking lots. The process of motorized vehicles not only affects the automotive industry itself, but also affects the entire power system.
Take the National Grid as an example. In September 2008, it announced that it is building electric vehicle charging stations in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The investment for each charging station is about 250,000 yuan. The single-digit charging facilities are still in the demonstration stage and are far away from large-scale commercial applications.
Finally, environmental protection is the fundamental starting point for the transformation of the automotive industry from conventional combustion engine technology to electric drive. If the government only measures the environmental impact of the conversion of an automobile from an internal combustion engine to an electric vehicle, it will become very unscientific.
For countries such as Japan and France that mainly generate electricity through nuclear power, electric vehicles do reduce air pollution. However, in China, thermal power generation still dominates at 70%.
China's electric cars do not burn gasoline, but they consume electricity from thermal power plants - that is, China's electric cars will indirectly "burn coal" and become "steam locomotives" in the new era. Therefore, the "energy saving and emission reduction" effect of electric vehicles is not as ideal as it is.
In addition, although the electric motor replaces 30% of the efficiency of the conventional internal combustion engine with its ultra-high efficiency of 90%, this series of processes will also waste energy from power generation to transmission, and from charging to discharging. If thermal power is used, the efficiency of the entire process is only about 30%, which is comparable to that of an internal combustion engine. None of these have calculated the serious environmental pollution caused by the production of batteries or scrapped batteries.
For the government, while spare no effort to support the development of electric vehicles and support related companies to develop new products, it is more important to make a fuss about entry barriers, supporting facilities and overall energy structure.
If these links do not change, it will be difficult for China to grasp the historical opportunities brought by the new energy revolution to the automotive industry.
For the government, while spare no effort to support the development of electric vehicles and support related companies to develop new products, it is more important to make a fuss about entry barriers, supporting facilities and overall energy structure.
Related Related
Classification of new energy vehicles
At present, there are two types of new energy vehicles, classified by fuel and by drive type.
According to the source of power, new energy refers to "fuel" other than traditional gasoline and diesel. This includes gas liquefied fuel (natural gas CNG, liquefied petroleum gas LPG); biomass fuel (ethanol, biodiesel); coal chemical fuel (dimethyl ether, methanol gasoline); electricity (various types of batteries, super capacitors); Hydrogen; Hybrid (traditional gasoline diesel + battery).
According to the type of drive, the internal combustion engine has a place in new energy vehicles. The new internal combustion engine will mainly use alternative fuels for gasoline and diesel, including CNG, LPG, ethanol, biodiesel, dimethyl ether, methanol gasoline, liquid hydrogen, and the above fuels. Hybrids; motor drives, which cover all types of batteries (lead-acid batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries), super capacitors, and hydrogen fuel cells.
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