Medium-heavy truck market characteristics forecast in 2013

As heavy trucks have not only a large market share in commercial vehicles, but also a high profit margin, long-term heavy trucks have become synonymous with commercial vehicles and have always been the focus of competition in the domestic and international commercial vehicle industry.

Heavy truck market: After a deep fall, the rebound can be expected

The market demand for heavy trucks is divided into two parts. One is the new demand and the other is the update demand.

Because heavy trucks are a kind of means of production, their new demand is mainly affected by the country's macroeconomic environment, especially the investment in fixed assets and the turnover volume of road cargo. As shown in Chart 1, due to the continuous fall of China's GDP growth rate for two consecutive years from 2011 to 2012, this has led to a complete fall in the growth rate of fixed-asset investment, consumption and import/export trade “troika”. On the one hand, the growth of road freight, highway freight turnover, and port container throughput has slowed down. This has led to shrinking new demand for heavy-duty trucks and semi-trailer tractors; on the other hand, it has made infrastructure projects and special transportation Demand for special chassis increased rapidly, eventually leading to a significant drop in new demand for heavy trucks in the overall market.

From the perspective of update requirements, according to statistics, the update cycle for U.S. heavy trucks is 4 to 6 years, while the frequency and intensity of domestic heavy trucks are high, and the update cycle is relatively short, only 3 to 5 years. Since 2009-2010, the government's "4 trillion investment to promote economic" policy introduced, resulting in skyrocketing demand for heavy trucks, on the one hand, resulting in overdraft consumption, on the other hand makes the 2011-2012 two years to become the bottom of demand for updates.

After two consecutive years of deep fall, the author predicted that the heavy truck market in 2013 will usher in a larger level of rebound. There are four main reasons for this: First, the Chinese economy is expected to begin a modest recovery in the first and second quarters of 2013. Although the structural problems and the aging of the population may slow down the growth of the Chinese economy in the medium to long term, I believe that the Chinese economy will achieve a cyclical rebound in 2013 with the implementation of the steady growth policy and the end of the destocking of industrial enterprises.

Second, infrastructure investment is expected to increase substantially. In the second half of 2012, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 25 rail transit and rail line projects; it has approved 13 major highway projects and seven state-level port construction projects. At the same time, local governments across the country have issued a pulling plan for local industries, investment, and consumption. The accumulated investment in conservative plans exceeds 12.8 trillion yuan, and the actual investment plan exceeds 20 trillion yuan, which opens up the market for heavy-duty trucks. Development space.

Third, the implementation of the Fourth National Emission Standard. The implementation of the National IV emission standard on July 1, 2013 will enable some heavy truck users to purchase or update vehicles in advance. It is initially expected that heavy truck sales will rebound sharply from the same period in the second quarter of 2013. In general, the upgrade of emission standards will directly increase the cost of first-time purchase of heavy trucks. For the upgrading of the National IV emission standard, it is necessary to upgrade the fuel injection system, and an additional tail gas treatment system is required. The purchase price of heavy-duty bicycles will increase by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan.

Fourth, the year-on-year basis is smaller. Affected by the deep fall of 2011-2012 for two consecutive years, the sales base for heavy trucks in 2012 will fall to about 635,000 vehicles, which undoubtedly laid the foundation for the market rebound in 2013.

Natural gas truck market will enter the fast lane

Whether it is the China Datong International Automobile Culture Festival in August 2012 or the Guangzhou International Commercial Vehicle Show at the end of 2012, natural gas heavy trucks are one of its biggest highlights. This type of vehicle not only has the advantages of energy saving and emission reduction, environmental protection, and cost saving, but also its power performance is not inferior to that of diesel vehicles.

Natural gas heavy trucks have obvious advantages over diesel vehicles. First of all, natural gas heavy trucks are generally 400,000 yuan, which is 80,000 yuan more than an ordinary heavy truck. However, natural gas vehicles have a low driving cost, saving 1 yuan per kilometer over ordinary models, so that overpaid 80,000 yuan can be recovered in one year. Secondly, natural gas is fully burned and does not produce carbon deposits, which can effectively prolong the life of the engine. Moreover, the environmental performance of natural gas trucks is even better, and the pollutant emissions are more than 90% lower than those of diesel vehicles. It is easy to meet the countries that will be officially implemented. Four emission standards.

During the period from January to November 2012 when the sales of the heavy truck industry plunged by 28.91% year-on-year, sales of Shaanxi Auto, which entered the natural gas heavy truck industry seven years ago, fell by 18.89%, which was the smallest decline among the top 10 heavy truck companies, and was far better than that. The industry average, which is mainly due to the sale of its natural gas heavy trucks. At present, Shaanxi Auto's holding capacity in the natural gas heavy truck market is as high as 65%. From the perspective of Guangzhou International Commercial Vehicles Exhibition at the end of 2012, Beiqi Foton and the FAW Jiefangdu exhibited their respective natural gas heavy trucks, while CNHTC, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, Beiben Heavy Duty Trucks, and joint trucks are currently developing over-loaded natural gas trucks.

In addition, as shown in Exhibit 2, during the first three quarters of 2012, the diesel engines for medium- and large-displacement vehicles of Weichai and Yuchai with a capacity of more than 6 liters all showed declines in different degrees, but the corresponding natural gas engines for vehicles showed a trend of skyrocketing growth. The natural gas heavy truck market started quietly in 2012. With the acceleration of construction of natural gas gas outlets and the official implementation of the National IV emission standards on July 1, 2013, there is reason to believe that the development of the natural gas truck market in 2013 will enter the fast track. .

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