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After the 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011, the production activities of various industries in the affected areas were severely hit. Japan's northeastern region and the Kanto region, where major earthquakes have occurred, are Japan's industrial concentration belts. After the earthquake, many factories in the earthquake-stricken areas and earthquake-stricken areas suffered heavy losses and were forced to suspend work. It is expected that recovery operations will take some time.
Affected by this, the Japanese economy, which has just emerged a recovery momentum, may suffer heavy losses in the short term.
As a large petrochemical country in the Far East, Japan has a total of six large petrochemical companies located in the northeast region where the earthquake occurred. They are Maruzen Petrochemicals, Mitsubishi Petrochemicals, Sumitomo Petrochemicals, Idemitsu Chemical, Mitsui Chemicals, and NPU Chemicals. These companies suffered from more serious disasters. The Mitsubishi Cosmo refinery in Chiba Prefecture, Japan, exploded and most of the plants have been shut down due to earthquakes and power outages. The suspension of these enterprises will likely affect the petrochemical enterprises in China from the international oil prices and the prices of some petrochemical products.
1 Crude oil price:
As a large petrochemical country, due to the lack of domestic resources in Japan, the required crude oil is almost entirely dependent on imports. At present, Japan is the third largest consumer of crude oil in the world. According to statistics, the consumption of crude oil in 2009 was 197 million tons. Therefore, with the shutdown of a large number of refineries caused by the earthquake, the demand for crude oil in Japan will inevitably decrease, and therefore it is expected to cause pressure on the world's oil prices. This has already had an impact on the international oil market. New York market oil prices all the way down after the opening on the 11th, the lowest intraday intraday hovering around 99 dollars, a drop of nearly 4%. In the London market, oil prices fell to $113.84 a barrel. For the first time in seven weeks, the market fell for the first time. According to statistics, two-thirds of Japan’s petrochemical companies are located in the earthquake area, so it is conservatively estimated that Japan’s crude oil imports will be reduced by more than one-third during the reconstruction process in the next three months, and the corresponding reduction in daily crude oil imports is 1.2 million barrels, equivalent to 1.7% of the world's crude oil consumption, is also twice the amount of crude oil produced by Libya. Therefore, without considering the influence of Saudi Arabia and other large OPEC countries to stabilize the previous increase in oil prices, the world crude oil supply and demand may also achieve hedging in the short term and a basic balance. Therefore, judging that the international oil price is expected to further decline, it is expected to return to the $90/barrel platform at the beginning of this round of rising, which is expected to significantly reduce the cost pressures of the recent soaring oil prices on China's petrochemical enterprises. It is expected that Sinopec, PetroChina, etc. Large-scale oil refining companies constitute a substantial good.
2 Chemical product price:
Japan is a large petrochemical country in Asia. In terms of ethylene production, it has been stable at around 7 million tons in recent years. The output of other major petrochemical products also ranks among the top in the world. The earthquake caused a large number of Japanese oil refinery companies to suspend production. We estimate that the monthly production of naphtha will be reduced by about 1.1 million tons, and the corresponding decrease in ethylene and propylene products will be more than 300,000 tons. The reduction in output of the product was more than 400,000 tons. And taking into account the relatively large proportion of benzene-based products in Japan's exports, such as: annual exports of styrene and PX are 1.6 million tons and 2.5 million tons respectively. Therefore, Japan's production cuts in these areas are expected to significantly increase the import costs of China's downstream industries, such as: PTA industry and EPS processing industry, and will increase the profits of EPS production companies.
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