· The Pearl River Delta National Five Standards are delayed until the end of the year to implement the market impact geometry?

On March 27th, the Guangdong Provincial Environmental Protection Department issued a special notice, Guangdong Province postponed the implementation of the national five emission standards for motor vehicles, of which the Pearl River Delta region was postponed until December 31, 2015, and other cities were postponed until June 30, 2016. This sudden "Notice" is equivalent to the relaxation of the implementation time limit of the National Five for nine months, which means that the period of sales, transfer and carding of the National Automobile of Guangdong Province will be delayed. As soon as the news came out, the car dealers were very excited. Some even launched old car replacement advertisements overnight, and they were preparing for the battle. Of course, dealers with more stocks in the country have a big sigh of relief. As for consumers, there are joys and sorrows. In the end, what impact will the country's five buffer period bring to the auto market? Let's take a look.
Impact 1
4S shop country four car clearing library pressure steeply reduced According to the reporter's understanding, the Pearl River Delta single-store country four stock cars more than 100 car brands accounted for 45%, and even there are individual brands single store's national four inventory vehicles more than 200. Moreover, at the end of last year, some auto manufacturers increased the supply of dealers, resulting in a different increase in the inventory of dealerships. Therefore, the actual total amount of the state IV inventory vehicles may be higher.
It is understood that many of the four state-owned vehicles are old-fashioned slow-moving models. If they implement the national five, they will face the situation that they cannot sell or cut prices, and dealers will suffer huge losses. A staff member of a 4S shop in Fangcun, Guangzhou said that the store has not entered the country's four cars since the end of last year, but as of now, there are still more than one-fourth of the country's four-car inventory. If it is implemented in March, the loss is expected to be 7 digits. Because the introduction of the policy will make the country's four cars a lot of slow-moving, can only transfer the national four cars to the areas that can not be sold, so that the freight will be a big expense.
Is the nine-month buffer period enough? The shop said that during this period, it should be possible to dispose of all the new cars in the country of inventory. "Before we have increased the promotion of the national four cars, it should be able to be cleared within six months," the source said. It is understood that this year, many countries in Guangzhou have four new cars on the foreign cards, and most consumers who have Guangzhou car purchase indicators choose the national five cars.
Impact 2
The amount of redemption may increase the implementation and delay of the implementation of the national five standards, making Guangzhou's four national car owners have to consider a question: Do you need to buy a national five car in advance? Otherwise, after the implementation of the National Five Standards in Guangdong Province, it will be implemented nationwide from January 1, 2018. The National Four cars will face the same situation as today's three cars: there are very few places to move in, or they are greatly devalued for sale. Either use scrap. A short period of policy window will give birth to some of the redemption needs.
At present, many local distributors have introduced replacement subsidy activities. For example, Nanling Group's various brand stores have subsidies ranging from thousands to 10,000 yuan for different models. Guangdong Renfu Yibang replacement customers will receive a one-year extended warranty. Since the Guangzhou limit, the proportion of 4S shop replacement sales has been greatly improved. The replacement business of mainstream brands such as Volkswagen, Buick and Toyota can often account for more than half of the daily sales. The National 5 standard only gives distributors a promotion. The replacement of the gimmicks also really brought the urgency of changing the car to some four-car owners. However, Mr. Chen, the sales manager of FAW-Volkswagen Jianwen Store, believes that although the delayed implementation of the policy can stimulate a part of the repurchase demand, it will also curb some of the demand: Some car owners may also choose to delay the purchase for various reasons.
Impact 3
China's fourth-hand car prices have stopped falling but it is hard to say that in early March, the reporter found in the local second-hand car market that the original price of the country's second-hand car, the market price has plummeted since the beginning of the year, the higher the price of luxury used car depreciation The bigger. After the news of the suspension of the National Five Standards came out, some second-hand car dealers said that they would not raise the car-selling price of the state-owned second-hand car. "In the long run, the restrictions on the four cars will be more and more. We will not accept the three cars in the beginning of last year. This year we are also cautious about the four cars." Mr. Li of the Guangzhou Automobile Department of Used Cars Optimistic: "If the new standard is implemented in March, the national four cars will definitely drop prices, but now it seems that the price should be similar to the previous ones, especially the Japanese cars, the used car prices will be relatively stable." Mr. Li believes that the national five standard test vehicle The channel capacity of the business, even if Guangzhou implements new standards at the end of the year, there are still quite a few cities in Guangdong Province that can move into the country's four cars, and there is a buffer period of more than one year.
It is reported that the province has only implemented the four national emission standards in advance in 2010, and only four years have passed, and the models that meet the national five emission standards have only been put into the market in 2013. Wang Xiaodan, secretary-general of the Guangdong Automobile Distribution Association, told reporters that in the province's second-hand car transactions, the proportion of used cars in the age of 3-10 years is 50%-60%, while the used cars within 3 years only account for about 20%. That is to say, the used cars that are currently circulated as commodities in the market are basically the emission standards below the national five, and in the next few years, only a few countries have used the second-hand car circulation, most of which are still under the national four and the national four. Emissions standard used cars are in circulation. After the implementation of the limit in Guangzhou, the proportion of used cars in Guangzhou is as high as 60%. Lu Weiqiang, president of Guangzhou FAW Toyota Synergy Association, said that 47% of the brand's dealers had sales from replacement, but the replacement rate reduced the replacement rate to 17%. Some dealer general managers are now returning to the office, the first thing. Just take a look at the map of mainland China and see where you can receive local vehicles. The city that moved out of Guangzhou is getting farther and farther away from Guangzhou, and the cost of moving out is getting higher and higher. The situation of the country's three cars in the past two years has made the car dealers somewhat scared. Therefore, although the country is suspended, the second-hand car of the state is stopped at most. The previous plunge, and over time, the depreciation rate will become larger and larger.
Impact 4
Relocation or promotion of the price of the auction card. At present, the proportion of foreign brands in the new 4S shop sales in Guangzhou is quite high. According to the information that the reporter understands, since the restriction, the sales of independent brands in Guangzhou are not large, but the foreign brands are Many, joint venture brands, Ford, Nissan and Toyota dealers told reporters that they now have four to five percent of customers each month after buying a car to choose a foreign card. About 30% of luxury brands use foreign cards. Since the National Five models began to increase gradually last year, the Guangzhou limit has been more than two years old, and the models of the foreign cards are estimated to account for more than half of the national four cars. If the implementation of the National Five Standards, even if Guangzhou does not introduce restrictions, these vehicles can not move back, so in the buffer period of the National Five Standards, it is expected that many foreign car owners will try to transfer back to the "Guangdong A" status. There are two reasons for choosing a foreign card. First, it is not qualified to obtain the Guangzhou car purchase index. Second, it is slow to shake the number, and does not want to spend money to bid. The National Five Standards will encourage some foreign car owners to participate in the auction, thus pushing up the bidding price.
The license plate auctioner with 4S shop believes that from a rational point of view, the price of the auction in Guangzhou will not be much higher at a time, but will gradually increase as the country's five major limits approach. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the average price of the auction in Guangzhou has started to increase month by month. In March, the winning rate was 48:1, the average transaction price of personal license plates was 15,436 yuan, and the lowest transaction price was 14,500 yuan.
1 Originally scheduled for March 1, 2015, the Pearl River Delta Implementation of the National Five Standards 2 March 27, 2015 issued a notice to suspend the implementation of the national five standards 3 December 31, 2015 in the Pearl River Delta implementation of the national five standards 4 other cities postponed to 2016 On June 30th, the implementation of the national five standard country five implementation time luxury brand and some high-end imported vehicles inventory of about 10,000 sets of joint venture brand inventory of about 90,000 commercial vehicles, including commercial buses and trucks, inventory of 60,000 units The inventory of independent brands in the vicinity of 40,000 units in Guangdong Province, 2000 car dealers in China and the fourth four countries below the emission standards of new car inventory is about 200,000 units, the amount of more than 20 billion yuan (source: Guangdong Province, automotive circulation) association)
The basic situation of the map/Linyuan 湄 car emission standard is the national car in 2007, and some are the national three, and some are the national four.
Before 2007, the cars were basically below the national level, that is, the national three and the national two.
Before 2005, the cars were basically the second car.
Most of the cars after 2008 are the national four.
In 2014, some of the cars were national five and some were national four.
After 2015, most of them were China.
By mastering this rule, you can judge for yourself what emission standards your car is.
For ambiguous years, you can use the following method to accurately query.
1. Take the motor vehicle registration certificate (original or photocopy) and go to the vehicle management office for enquiry.
2. Log in to the website of the Vehicle Exhaust Pollution Supervision and Management Center (http://).
3. Look for your registration card and indicate which emission standard the car is. Also on the windshield.
The term explains the national fifth-stage motor vehicle pollutant discharge standard, that is, the “national five standard”, and the national five standard emission control level is equivalent to the fifth stage emission standard being implemented in Europe. The European Union has been in operation since 2009, and its restrictions on motor vehicle emissions such as nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and suspended particulates are even more stringent. From country I to country IV, bicycle pollution is reduced by 30% to 50% for each standard increase.
For ambiguous years, you can use the following method to accurately query.
1. Take the motor vehicle registration certificate (original or photocopy) and go to the vehicle management office for enquiry.
2. Log in to the website of the Vehicle Exhaust Pollution Supervision and Management Center (http://).
3. Look for your registration card and indicate which emission standard the car is. Also on the windshield.

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