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Relevant media reported that “The National Development and Reform Commission experts stated that the Chinese government will immediately start collecting fuel surcharge tax†reports, making the topic of fuel tax and China’s energy price reform once again become the focus of attention. In fact, the reform of energy prices, including the introduction of fuel tax, is a threshold that must be overcome in the course of China’s economic development. After passing this threshold, how to deal with the large fluctuations in the international market is the real challenge we face. challenge.
The large fluctuations in energy prices represented by oil prices will have a big impact on the economy, and the stability of energy prices will affect China’s economic and social stability. The international oil price rose from US$60 per barrel in January 2007 to the highest of US$147. It only lasted 18 months. It took only four months to go back from the highest point to US$60. The rate and magnitude of the decline are both high. Unprecedentedly, describing oil prices as "roller coasters" is very appropriate. The reasons for the sharp rise in oil prices in the earlier period are complex, such as economic growth, excess liquidity, the depreciation of the US dollar, geopolitics, OPEC limited production, speculative international speculative funds, and so on. The subsequent global financial crisis triggered by the financial tsunami of Wall Street in the United States led to a drastic adjustment of oil prices, which also had a major impact on the global economy.
From historical experience, energy prices are more stable under government pricing. China's energy prices have maintained low levels and administrative pricing for a long time. Although the controlled low energy prices are relatively stable, the price paid is not small. The regulated energy price is actually a kind of recessive inflation. The consequence is that the supply continues to be tense and the pressure of rising prices continues to accumulate. This suppressed price rise pressure will be released sooner or later, which has a tendency to drastically push up energy prices. . Secondly, the recurring supply of coal, electricity and refined oil products over the past few years shows that the negative effects of distortions in energy price controls are becoming increasingly prominent and have a major negative impact on the economy. Finally, in order to maintain low energy prices, the government was forced to spend large amounts of fiscal subsidies and subsidy through losses of energy state-owned enterprises. On the surface, it maintained a stable energy price, but in reality it paid a huge price for energy price stability, causing an outflow of scarce resources. To amplify energy demand, aggravate the contradiction between energy supply and demand, and become the cause of further significant price fluctuations.
At present, the reform of the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism and the introduction of fuel tax are growing louder. Government pricing makes oil prices a fierce game for governments, oil companies, and the public. The monopoly of oil companies by state-owned enterprises has complicated this issue. Many people now think that the oil resources are in the hands of the two major oil groups so that they can effectively postpone or not price adjustments. The economic globalization and the substantial increase in the external dependence of China's energy resources have made the government's pricing and price control unsustainable. This includes the problems of excessive fiscal subsidy, fairness of subsidies, expansion of energy demand, and reduction of energy efficiency. To solve these problems, we must proceed from China's national conditions, adopt energy price reforms, make prices reflect scarcity and environmental costs, increase energy efficiency, and properly guide investment, and vigorously promote the energy price system reform.
The author believes that now may be a good time for refined oil price reform. After Chinese consumers experienced high oil prices, their mental capacity has been greatly strengthened and reforms should be more acceptable to consumers. The reform when the international oil price fell sharply means that the reduction in oil prices is good for consumers. Affected by the international financial crisis, China's inflation index has fallen. At this time, the reform of refined oil prices is relatively calm for the government. For oil companies, regardless of whether or not they change, the price of oil is to be lowered, and the institutional reform is a long-term positive. Because, at present, oil companies will focus on the price game with the government and the people, rather than improving the efficiency of production management. Once the price mechanism has been liberalized and the government and enterprises are separated, enterprises have no concerns about price control, and they can do their best to improve efficiency.
However, the current government’s biggest concern should be the issue of substantial price fluctuations after the reforms and the impact of large fluctuations on economic development and social stability. It should be noted that there are many reasons that affect the stability of energy prices, including the uncertainty of energy storage and supply (such as geopolitical-induced supply worries), speculation, and depreciation of the US dollar. Uncertainty is an important characteristic of energy. There are uncertainties regarding the reserves of fossil fuels, future price and cost trends, technological changes, opportunities for discovering new resource reserves or new energy varieties, and so on. For example, fossil fuel reserves (including quantity, type, and distribution) are difficult to be fully grasped and accurately estimated, and related mining, investment activities, and energy prices are mostly based on insufficient information. All kinds of uncertainties will affect the supply and demand of energy markets, making energy prices prone to fluctuating. Therefore, considering the basic conditions for the stability of energy prices, we must start with ensuring energy reserves and supply and curbing energy speculation.
Of course, after the release of energy prices, domestic energy prices will be in line with the international market and will inevitably be affected by fluctuations in international energy prices. In the short term, China's energy price reform may lead to relative instability of domestic energy prices. However, the market-oriented reform of the energy pricing mechanism is conducive to the formation of a real market signal and a flexible response mechanism, enhancing economic vitality and supply capacity, improving energy efficiency, and curbing energy demand. Therefore, in the long term, reforms will ensure stable energy prices. , Or do not rise too fast basic conditions. Moreover, the impact of international energy price fluctuations can be minimized in the design of reforms.
Then, under the premise that energy prices must be reformed on the market, how to ensure that energy prices are relatively stable? The author believes that to ensure the stability of energy prices, we must first start with energy reserves and supply, and study how to improve the efficiency of energy extraction and utilization. Second, we must effectively curb energy speculation after price liberalization. We need to start with market and price mechanisms to study the regulation of energy futures and transactions. Third, the government's energy price subsidies can be used to stabilize prices. However, the design of subsidies must be short-term, reasonable, fair, effective and transparent. In the long term, as the government gradually transparents and reduces energy price subsidies, and energy prices gradually reflect the realization of resource scarcity and environmental costs, China’s energy prices may also continue to rise. Stable energy prices may be mainly concentrated in the suppression of energy. The price is too high, too fast. How to minimize the impact of energy price fluctuations on China's macroeconomy will be a major issue that we must seriously address.
The large fluctuations in energy prices represented by oil prices will have a big impact on the economy, and the stability of energy prices will affect China’s economic and social stability. The international oil price rose from US$60 per barrel in January 2007 to the highest of US$147. It only lasted 18 months. It took only four months to go back from the highest point to US$60. The rate and magnitude of the decline are both high. Unprecedentedly, describing oil prices as "roller coasters" is very appropriate. The reasons for the sharp rise in oil prices in the earlier period are complex, such as economic growth, excess liquidity, the depreciation of the US dollar, geopolitics, OPEC limited production, speculative international speculative funds, and so on. The subsequent global financial crisis triggered by the financial tsunami of Wall Street in the United States led to a drastic adjustment of oil prices, which also had a major impact on the global economy.
From historical experience, energy prices are more stable under government pricing. China's energy prices have maintained low levels and administrative pricing for a long time. Although the controlled low energy prices are relatively stable, the price paid is not small. The regulated energy price is actually a kind of recessive inflation. The consequence is that the supply continues to be tense and the pressure of rising prices continues to accumulate. This suppressed price rise pressure will be released sooner or later, which has a tendency to drastically push up energy prices. . Secondly, the recurring supply of coal, electricity and refined oil products over the past few years shows that the negative effects of distortions in energy price controls are becoming increasingly prominent and have a major negative impact on the economy. Finally, in order to maintain low energy prices, the government was forced to spend large amounts of fiscal subsidies and subsidy through losses of energy state-owned enterprises. On the surface, it maintained a stable energy price, but in reality it paid a huge price for energy price stability, causing an outflow of scarce resources. To amplify energy demand, aggravate the contradiction between energy supply and demand, and become the cause of further significant price fluctuations.
At present, the reform of the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism and the introduction of fuel tax are growing louder. Government pricing makes oil prices a fierce game for governments, oil companies, and the public. The monopoly of oil companies by state-owned enterprises has complicated this issue. Many people now think that the oil resources are in the hands of the two major oil groups so that they can effectively postpone or not price adjustments. The economic globalization and the substantial increase in the external dependence of China's energy resources have made the government's pricing and price control unsustainable. This includes the problems of excessive fiscal subsidy, fairness of subsidies, expansion of energy demand, and reduction of energy efficiency. To solve these problems, we must proceed from China's national conditions, adopt energy price reforms, make prices reflect scarcity and environmental costs, increase energy efficiency, and properly guide investment, and vigorously promote the energy price system reform.
The author believes that now may be a good time for refined oil price reform. After Chinese consumers experienced high oil prices, their mental capacity has been greatly strengthened and reforms should be more acceptable to consumers. The reform when the international oil price fell sharply means that the reduction in oil prices is good for consumers. Affected by the international financial crisis, China's inflation index has fallen. At this time, the reform of refined oil prices is relatively calm for the government. For oil companies, regardless of whether or not they change, the price of oil is to be lowered, and the institutional reform is a long-term positive. Because, at present, oil companies will focus on the price game with the government and the people, rather than improving the efficiency of production management. Once the price mechanism has been liberalized and the government and enterprises are separated, enterprises have no concerns about price control, and they can do their best to improve efficiency.
However, the current government’s biggest concern should be the issue of substantial price fluctuations after the reforms and the impact of large fluctuations on economic development and social stability. It should be noted that there are many reasons that affect the stability of energy prices, including the uncertainty of energy storage and supply (such as geopolitical-induced supply worries), speculation, and depreciation of the US dollar. Uncertainty is an important characteristic of energy. There are uncertainties regarding the reserves of fossil fuels, future price and cost trends, technological changes, opportunities for discovering new resource reserves or new energy varieties, and so on. For example, fossil fuel reserves (including quantity, type, and distribution) are difficult to be fully grasped and accurately estimated, and related mining, investment activities, and energy prices are mostly based on insufficient information. All kinds of uncertainties will affect the supply and demand of energy markets, making energy prices prone to fluctuating. Therefore, considering the basic conditions for the stability of energy prices, we must start with ensuring energy reserves and supply and curbing energy speculation.
Of course, after the release of energy prices, domestic energy prices will be in line with the international market and will inevitably be affected by fluctuations in international energy prices. In the short term, China's energy price reform may lead to relative instability of domestic energy prices. However, the market-oriented reform of the energy pricing mechanism is conducive to the formation of a real market signal and a flexible response mechanism, enhancing economic vitality and supply capacity, improving energy efficiency, and curbing energy demand. Therefore, in the long term, reforms will ensure stable energy prices. , Or do not rise too fast basic conditions. Moreover, the impact of international energy price fluctuations can be minimized in the design of reforms.
Then, under the premise that energy prices must be reformed on the market, how to ensure that energy prices are relatively stable? The author believes that to ensure the stability of energy prices, we must first start with energy reserves and supply, and study how to improve the efficiency of energy extraction and utilization. Second, we must effectively curb energy speculation after price liberalization. We need to start with market and price mechanisms to study the regulation of energy futures and transactions. Third, the government's energy price subsidies can be used to stabilize prices. However, the design of subsidies must be short-term, reasonable, fair, effective and transparent. In the long term, as the government gradually transparents and reduces energy price subsidies, and energy prices gradually reflect the realization of resource scarcity and environmental costs, China’s energy prices may also continue to rise. Stable energy prices may be mainly concentrated in the suppression of energy. The price is too high, too fast. How to minimize the impact of energy price fluctuations on China's macroeconomy will be a major issue that we must seriously address.
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