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At present, the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the chemical fiber industry is once again evident. Since July, under the influence of rising oil prices, the prices of chemical fiber raw materials at high levels have soared again, cost pressures have further increased, and the outlook for the chemical fiber industry, which has just improved, has cast a shadow over the second half of the year.
In the first half of this year, the chemical fiber industry showed obvious signs of recovery. Market sales and sales conditions improved, business utilization rate increased, and economic benefits also improved significantly. The most significant was that the industry's profit increased by 51% year-on-year, most of the chemical fiber listed companies Both main income and profit have increased by different ranges.
PTA is the key
Regarding the reasons for the substantial increase in profits of the chemical fiber industry in the first half of the year, various parties have different opinions. Guo Jian Securities researcher Zhang Jianfeng believes that the base of the industry's profits has always been low, the situation has changed, there is a substantial change is a normal phenomenon. There are also some reasons to look for profits in the industry from the upstream and downstream perspectives. The relevant person of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association believes that it depends to a large extent on the fall in the increase in raw material prices. The most obvious is that the first half of refined terephthalic acid ( The average market price of PTA increased by only 0.24% year-on-year, which has greatly promoted the growth of the efficiency of the polyester industry.
Ren Jing, a researcher at Guotai Junan, believes that the raw material price for PTA for the first half of the year was at a low level for most of the time and began to rise in the second half of the year. The cost of the chemical fiber industry should be relatively low during this period, and the data released by the Chemical Fiber Economic Information Network for the same period will be used for illustration. From the perspective of the PTA trend in the first half of the year, most of the time, it fluctuates slightly around 8,000 yuan and is in a relatively stable state. Ren Jing said that if the calculation is based on the number and amount of PTA imported during the same period, the PTA price will show signs of falling during this period, and the decline in investment growth and output growth will also help the industry to pick up.
It is understood that the chemical fiber industry divides into two categories of man-made fibers and synthetic fibers according to product categories. Man-made fibers mainly use natural raw materials such as cottonseed, and synthetic fiber raw materials come from petrochemical products such as PTA, caprolactam and MDI. In the domestic chemical fiber product structure, polyester with PTA as raw material accounted for 80% of the proportion, and the characteristics of the chemical fiber industry affected by oil prices are obvious.
In addition to this, another feature of the chemical fiber industry is that raw materials are highly dependent on the outside world. According to customs statistics, from 2003 to 2005, the domestic PTA imports were 4.55 million tons, 5.72 million tons and 6.49 million tons, respectively, and the imports were dependent on the same period. The degrees are 53%, 56%, and 54%, respectively. The dependence increases with the increase in imports, indicating that the domestic chemical fiber industry has developed rapidly. Analysts believe that although there are 2.26 million tons of PTA projects in production this year, it is difficult to change the status quo of raw materials imports in the short term.
According to statistics, there are currently 23 listed companies involved in the chemical fiber business. Except for Nanjing Chemical Fiber (for quotation, forum) and other 6 companies that mainly produce artificial fiber products, there are 16 companies whose main business involves synthetic fiber products. , including large petrochemical companies such as Shanghai Petrochemical (Quotes, Forum), due to the promising market prospects of PTA, there have been many companies recently invested in the project, in addition to the original Yizheng Chemical Fiber (quotations, forum), G Hualian (quotations, forums) Outside the enterprise, Sinopec's Yangzi Petrochemical (Market, Forum) and Guangdong Fuhua (Quotes, Forum) joint venture companies are also involved in this area, and recently G Power (Market, Forum) has also issued a related announcement that it will pass a controlling subsidiary. Invest in PTA projects.
As a downstream industry of petrochemical products, the price of chemical fiber products fluctuates under the influence of large fluctuations in upstream product prices. After PTA prices have risen sharply in July, the volatility is close to 20% compared to the lowest level in the year. Polyester and other chemical fiber products Affected by the simultaneous upward trend, and in the near future set a high of 15,000 yuan / ton and 13,000 yuan / ton, compared with the lowest price this year, the two major varieties rose more than 20%.
Interlocking industry
Faced with the situation where the prices of various products in the industry chain fluctuate greatly, analysts are worried. Relevant research also expressed concern about the current trend of rising prices of chemical fiber raw materials and chemical fiber products, and believe that the downstream affordability is limited, and that the rapid rise in the short term may also have the possibility of rapid decline. Similar situations have occurred in the past. Regardless of raw materials or products, excessive price fluctuations in the short term will bring operating risks to related companies. Even companies in the chemical fiber industry, textiles, and manufacturing industries in the industry chain will be implicated. According to a certain professional, the ability of the chemical fiber industry to transfer costs is weak, and the price increase of products is very small. According to past experience, even if the price goes up, it will be affected by the market.
According to industry analysts, from the current situation, the chemical fiber industry in the middle reaches can not get rid of the embarrassment brought about by the price fluctuations of upstream products. Enterprises should have sufficient understanding of this and take measures to adjust the product structure and take measures to deal with it. This is on the side of the government. In addition to the regulation of policies, it is also possible to explore trading mechanisms, such as establishing a system of forward transactions for products or raw materials, and helping companies avoid risks by hedging and other means to increase their profitability.
Obviously, in the competition between cost and demand, the chemical fiber industry has been attacked by both sides and has become an industry that seeks space in the cracks.
In the first half of this year, the chemical fiber industry showed obvious signs of recovery. Market sales and sales conditions improved, business utilization rate increased, and economic benefits also improved significantly. The most significant was that the industry's profit increased by 51% year-on-year, most of the chemical fiber listed companies Both main income and profit have increased by different ranges.
PTA is the key
Regarding the reasons for the substantial increase in profits of the chemical fiber industry in the first half of the year, various parties have different opinions. Guo Jian Securities researcher Zhang Jianfeng believes that the base of the industry's profits has always been low, the situation has changed, there is a substantial change is a normal phenomenon. There are also some reasons to look for profits in the industry from the upstream and downstream perspectives. The relevant person of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association believes that it depends to a large extent on the fall in the increase in raw material prices. The most obvious is that the first half of refined terephthalic acid ( The average market price of PTA increased by only 0.24% year-on-year, which has greatly promoted the growth of the efficiency of the polyester industry.
Ren Jing, a researcher at Guotai Junan, believes that the raw material price for PTA for the first half of the year was at a low level for most of the time and began to rise in the second half of the year. The cost of the chemical fiber industry should be relatively low during this period, and the data released by the Chemical Fiber Economic Information Network for the same period will be used for illustration. From the perspective of the PTA trend in the first half of the year, most of the time, it fluctuates slightly around 8,000 yuan and is in a relatively stable state. Ren Jing said that if the calculation is based on the number and amount of PTA imported during the same period, the PTA price will show signs of falling during this period, and the decline in investment growth and output growth will also help the industry to pick up.
It is understood that the chemical fiber industry divides into two categories of man-made fibers and synthetic fibers according to product categories. Man-made fibers mainly use natural raw materials such as cottonseed, and synthetic fiber raw materials come from petrochemical products such as PTA, caprolactam and MDI. In the domestic chemical fiber product structure, polyester with PTA as raw material accounted for 80% of the proportion, and the characteristics of the chemical fiber industry affected by oil prices are obvious.
In addition to this, another feature of the chemical fiber industry is that raw materials are highly dependent on the outside world. According to customs statistics, from 2003 to 2005, the domestic PTA imports were 4.55 million tons, 5.72 million tons and 6.49 million tons, respectively, and the imports were dependent on the same period. The degrees are 53%, 56%, and 54%, respectively. The dependence increases with the increase in imports, indicating that the domestic chemical fiber industry has developed rapidly. Analysts believe that although there are 2.26 million tons of PTA projects in production this year, it is difficult to change the status quo of raw materials imports in the short term.
According to statistics, there are currently 23 listed companies involved in the chemical fiber business. Except for Nanjing Chemical Fiber (for quotation, forum) and other 6 companies that mainly produce artificial fiber products, there are 16 companies whose main business involves synthetic fiber products. , including large petrochemical companies such as Shanghai Petrochemical (Quotes, Forum), due to the promising market prospects of PTA, there have been many companies recently invested in the project, in addition to the original Yizheng Chemical Fiber (quotations, forum), G Hualian (quotations, forums) Outside the enterprise, Sinopec's Yangzi Petrochemical (Market, Forum) and Guangdong Fuhua (Quotes, Forum) joint venture companies are also involved in this area, and recently G Power (Market, Forum) has also issued a related announcement that it will pass a controlling subsidiary. Invest in PTA projects.
As a downstream industry of petrochemical products, the price of chemical fiber products fluctuates under the influence of large fluctuations in upstream product prices. After PTA prices have risen sharply in July, the volatility is close to 20% compared to the lowest level in the year. Polyester and other chemical fiber products Affected by the simultaneous upward trend, and in the near future set a high of 15,000 yuan / ton and 13,000 yuan / ton, compared with the lowest price this year, the two major varieties rose more than 20%.
Interlocking industry
Faced with the situation where the prices of various products in the industry chain fluctuate greatly, analysts are worried. Relevant research also expressed concern about the current trend of rising prices of chemical fiber raw materials and chemical fiber products, and believe that the downstream affordability is limited, and that the rapid rise in the short term may also have the possibility of rapid decline. Similar situations have occurred in the past. Regardless of raw materials or products, excessive price fluctuations in the short term will bring operating risks to related companies. Even companies in the chemical fiber industry, textiles, and manufacturing industries in the industry chain will be implicated. According to a certain professional, the ability of the chemical fiber industry to transfer costs is weak, and the price increase of products is very small. According to past experience, even if the price goes up, it will be affected by the market.
According to industry analysts, from the current situation, the chemical fiber industry in the middle reaches can not get rid of the embarrassment brought about by the price fluctuations of upstream products. Enterprises should have sufficient understanding of this and take measures to adjust the product structure and take measures to deal with it. This is on the side of the government. In addition to the regulation of policies, it is also possible to explore trading mechanisms, such as establishing a system of forward transactions for products or raw materials, and helping companies avoid risks by hedging and other means to increase their profitability.
Obviously, in the competition between cost and demand, the chemical fiber industry has been attacked by both sides and has become an industry that seeks space in the cracks.