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Driven by the prototype of Google's driverless cars, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and others have tested self-driving cars on the road.
However, advanced sensors and electronic components that are building blocks for driverless cars are often manufactured by suppliers rather than car dealers.
Some people worry that, in the long run, automakers that are lagging behind automated automotive technology will end up with the current PC equipment manufacturers—most of the profits flow to those software and electronic content providers.
“Suppliers in the automotive industry will eventually gain momentum.†A senior industry analyst who works closely with leading car dealers pointed out, “If I were a buyer, I wouldn’t care if the car was 1.9 liters or 2.4 liters because it was not me. drive."
Since Jaguar introduced adaptive cruise control technology in the XK sports car in 1996, car dealers gradually added automation elements to the product. These so-called Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) help to make the driving experience less boring and reduce traffic accidents.
Industry upstart Tesla released last week an autonomous driving technology that automatically adjusts the speed of the car based on the speed limit sign.
More stringent safety assessments and differentiated product requirements mean that more ADAS technologies may be added to cars in the coming years, as well as VW models – laying the groundwork for a fully automated car in the near future.
Suppliers will become winners
Analysts estimate that with the increasing value of radar, camera, map technology and software in the vehicle, their suppliers will be big winners in automotive automation trends.
Guillaume Devauchelle, Valeo's innovation vice president of French supplier, said: "We don't think that there will be war between automakers and suppliers, but there are obvious added value places where there is bargaining. ."
Suppliers who can provide all kinds of automated driving cars will be the biggest beneficiaries, and this view has prompted a wave of consolidation in the industry.
ZF announced last month that it had acquired US$12.4 billion worth of acquisition of U.S. camera and radar system manufacturer TRW Automotive Group. ZF CEO Stefan Sommer pointed out that the German transmission provider believes that driver assistance systems and automated driving are important drivers of future growth.
A week later, Panasonic agreed to acquire 49% of Ficosa, a Spanish auto parts maker, for an unknown price. Panasonic hopes to jointly develop driverless cars by combining its automotive sensor technology with Ficosa's image recognition technology.
Sweden's seatbelt and airbag supplier Autoliv also made several reinforcement purchases, including the purchase of the German company Hella's on-board radar business and special software licensing rights.
Driver assist systems based on these products are already entering the new generation of cars. The features involved include lane departure warning, automatic parking, automatic emergency braking and pedestrian detection.
German first-class car dealers have introduced new ADAS technology to high-end models. The two German suppliers Continental and Bosch have thus become the biggest beneficiaries. The newly introduced Mercedes-Benz S-Series includes a "traffic jam assisted" technology that allows it to automatically follow the front car at a low speed.
Compared to the supplier's core products (such as brake systems, airbags and tires), driver assistance technology is still a small market. For example, ADAS technology will only account for about 1% of Continental's estimated sales of 34.5 billion euros in 2014.
However, the industry is expected to grow rapidly. BNP Paribas estimates that the market size of automation and driver assistance technologies will reach 25 billion U.S. dollars and 57 billion U.S. dollars by 2020 and 2025, respectively, far exceeding the 6 billion U.S. dollars this year. "Google ignited the dispute over driverless cars and benefited suppliers." The broker said in its investment report.
Continental CEO Elmar Degenhart stated that its ADAS sales growth rate will reach around 30% in the next few years and reach around 1 billion euros in 2016. Its rival Bosch has similar goals for 2016.
Software and hardware integration into key
Driverless cars will also need a large number of backup systems to ensure safety, which also benefits the electronics provider. However, how much benefit they can derive from it will depend on how much automakers outsource automotive automation. “The lower the level of vertical integration chosen by car dealers, the greater value the suppliers will receive. We estimate that the extent of outsourcing by car dealers will increase significantly in the future.†Morgan Stanley wrote in the research report.
For industry executives, the ability to integrate hardware and software will become a determinant of the success or failure of car dealers. “Only those car dealers and suppliers with extensive system technology will succeed,†said Bosch CEO Volkmar Denner in March. Therefore, car dealers and first-class auto parts suppliers are investing heavily in strengthening their own software capabilities.
Independent software companies are also expected to play an important role in the development of automated cars. After all, writing and updating millions of lines of code is far from easy errands.
Google is not the only competitor in this field. Mobileye, Israel's self-driving car camera software developer, successfully listed in the US in August and raised 890 million U.S. dollars. The stock price is currently gaining momentum. At the same time, Mercedes-Benz is collaborating with the Finnish automotive software supplier Elektrobit.
According to Martin Schleicher, vice president of EB Automotive's business strategy, car dealers "will play an important role in software development because the work will become an important part of their brand identity."
Jack Bergquist, an adviser to consulting firm IHS Automotive, believes that for reasons of responsibility, car dealers will also seek control over vehicle software. "Once software code goes wrong, it can cause disaster... No manufacturer wants to see this - so any car manufacturer will seek to ensure that it will take the initiative," he added.
A central controller that uses algorithms to process sensor data and convert that data into automotive action is likely to be the operating system, or the “brain†of driverless cars. Morgan Stanley concluded that the "brain" control dispute between manufacturers and suppliers "will determine who will control the value of the car."
Technology changes automotive design
Andy Sharman wrote that last week's Paris Motor Show visitors may think that Infiniti's Q80 concept car has not been completed yet. This is actually extenuating.
The luxury car should have parts, but no rearview mirror. The car uses a rear-facing camera embedded in a wheel arch to transmit the screen to the center console screen. It shows that the new car technology is not only changing driving ideas, but also prompting people to rethink the car's design.
Although fully automated cars are still out of reach of many people, mainstream car dealers have begun to transform traditional car designs.
The Volkswagen XL1 is based on a camera-based rearview mirror, which is already on sale in continental Europe.
Other manufacturers are also seeking to create a steering wheel that can be moved to the middle of the car so that the driver has more room to move when the car is in "autopilot" mode.
The FutureTruck 2025 truck shown by Daimler can rotate the driver's chair from the steering wheel.
The future of the driverless car will even appear more radical features. "If people don't have to control the car, that's all sorts of possibilities," said Richard Wallace, director of transportation systems analysis at the Automotive Research Center.
"Why must the driver face the front? In the future, I may be able to put a conference table in my car."
Driverless cars are also expected to avoid traffic accidents, which means that the car body may be able to use lighter, less protective materials. Dominique Bonte, vice president of ABI Research, said, “If the chance of collision is zero, why do we use these super-strong metal materials to resist all kinds of collisions?â€
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